Financial + Utility Inputs
Use your assumptions; output recalculates instantly.
Pricing references are based on observed Apple preconfigured options as of August 2026 (last checked 2026-08-26) and should be rechecked before final purchase decisions.
Mac Studio M5 Bayesian Decision Tool
Compare the options you listed: pre-order 256 GB now, finance and lease it for 12 months or 36 months, or wait for late-October pre-order of 512 GB. Trade-in value of your Apple product is included.
Score = Posterior Probability × Utility Horizon − Effective Cost
Bayesian Evidence Weights
This section controls how strongly you believe each option is best.
Think of each value as a confidence multiplier:
1.0 = neutral, above 1.0 = favor this option,
below 1.0 = favor other options.
Start with all values at 1.0, then increase only the options you trust more.
Example: if you strongly prefer waiting for 512GB, set that to 1.4 and keep others around 1.0.
Priors are equal. Evidence > 1 raises confidence; < 1 lowers it.